Had a really interesting discussion this weekend on whether Wordle is a game of chance or skill. Initially, I protested that it was a game of skill, but in the end I have fallen into the game of chance category.
My thoughts are thus...
In terms of the first choice, were looking at independent variables. Like picking a random number 1-100 against an unknown but altering fixed number. It doesn't matter if you say 1 each time, progress 1,2,3 or just pick a random number the probability of you choosing the right number is always the same.
Any matches that are made beyond that reduce the number of options for you to choose from. So RAISE is good because statistically, it's a word that eliminates the most options, but still leaves you with some.
As you have no more data to choose from those options ... Say you have reduced your answer to 1 in 20, it is still random. Just tighter probability
The 'skill' lies in choosing words with letters that reduce the choices most, fastest
However, when we get to the multiple rhyming words solutions, beyond the letters that have been eliminated there is no other way to affect the probability of your choice.
So, we do have two small pieces of data that can help. We can assume that the game will not repeat words, but that has never been stated. And we know it uses American English spelling, however this brings MORE potential words into play; labor, vapor etc.
So, even if you have reduced the choice to one of two words, it's still a 50/50 choice. A coin toss. The question then is how much would you be willing to bet on a coin toss before you accept it's random and therefore a massive risk?
So the real test of skill comes here.
S_ILL with H, K and W still left. You have two moves remaining.
So how your skill can determine accurately which of these is correct?
You simply cannot.
So the skill is in reducing the random, but in the end it's just playing probabilities. Like a game of Blackjack where you're allowed to count the cards, but have no option to stick.
Am I right?