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Wordle 231 4/6

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Hitting those four letters in the second line made up for the panic I felt from the first line having nothing.

If you play this, do you start with the same words? I use two high frequency words for the first two guesses unless one has a really high hit rate in which case I may dive straight in.
 
Had a really interesting discussion this weekend on whether Wordle is a game of chance or skill. Initially, I protested that it was a game of skill, but in the end I have fallen into the game of chance category.

My thoughts are thus...

In terms of the first choice, were looking at independent variables. Like picking a random number 1-100 against an unknown but altering fixed number. It doesn't matter if you say 1 each time, progress 1,2,3 or just pick a random number the probability of you choosing the right number is always the same.

Any matches that are made beyond that reduce the number of options for you to choose from. So RAISE is good because statistically, it's a word that eliminates the most options, but still leaves you with some.

As you have no more data to choose from those options ... Say you have reduced your answer to 1 in 20, it is still random. Just tighter probability

The 'skill' lies in choosing words with letters that reduce the choices most, fastest

However, when we get to the multiple rhyming words solutions, beyond the letters that have been eliminated there is no other way to affect the probability of your choice.

So, we do have two small pieces of data that can help. We can assume that the game will not repeat words, but that has never been stated. And we know it uses American English spelling, however this brings MORE potential words into play; labor, vapor etc.

So, even if you have reduced the choice to one of two words, it's still a 50/50 choice. A coin toss. The question then is how much would you be willing to bet on a coin toss before you accept it's random and therefore a massive risk?

So the real test of skill comes here.

S_ILL with H, K and W still left. You have two moves remaining.

So how your skill can determine accurately which of these is correct?

You simply cannot.

So the skill is in reducing the random, but in the end it's just playing probabilities. Like a game of Blackjack where you're allowed to count the cards, but have no option to stick.

Am I right?
 
I'd say that it's definitely a mixture of skill and chance, because I wouldn't be so quick to discard the skill of choosing good words to narrow down the options. Without that skill, you won't realise that entering "TOOTS" will give you less data than if you enter "TRUMP".
Even with that knowledge in hand, a narrow vocabulary will reduce your chances. If you don't realise that "GROAT" is a word, you'll surely never enter it.
 
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It's like many games - it's about managing your luck.

In the first couple of guesses, you look to pick words with lots of common letters so you can eliminate as much as possible. Then you should be able to narrow in on the solution. (At least, that's working for us - it's currently our entertainment at the breakfast table.)

I'm waiting for an Americanism that I'm unfamiliar with. That and tricky words like tryst or gypsy...
 
I think it’s a blend of both luck and skill. Skill is your vocabulary and understanding of letter sequence probabilities.

That said, it’s something the family are doing each day as a bit of a competition.

Wordle 233 3/6

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